With two weeks left in the NFL regular season, things are pretty much just like they are every year in terms of a big jumbled mess in the race for the wildcard spots. Here's how things are right now after 14 games.
NFC
1. Green Bay (13-1)
2. San Francisco (11-3)
3. New Orleans (11-3)
4. Dallas (8-6), New York (7-7), Philadelphia (6-8)
5. Atlanta (9-5)
6. Detroit (9-5)
Green Bay: The loss to Kansas City last week might be a blessing in disguise. The perfect season was beginning to look very probable, but I contend that the Packers would have had their hands full with a desperate Chicago (12/25) and Detroit in Week 17. The Packers can now cruise into the playoffs, and I say cruise because I don't necessarily see Mike McCarthy "resting" his players. Important guys will definitely see less time, but the Packers are all about rhythm. In 2009 the Packers had already clinched a playoff birth and were guaranteed to play the Arizona Cardinals in the wildcard round. Their Week 17 opponent happened to be those same Arizona Cardinals. The Packers demolished the Cardinals, but the starters all played into the 4th quarter while the Cardinals starters were pulled in the 2nd quarter. It's hard to say if this strategy paid off. The Packers lost the next week 51-45 in overtime of the wild card game, but obviously the offense was in the zone. All that aside, the Packers need one win or one San Francisco loss to gain homefield advantage. The path to the Super Bowl goes through Green Bay.
San Francisco: The 49ers go into Seattle in a very losable game. Seattle is playing well, and they seem to always play well at home. San Fran gets in with 2 wins, or a win and a New Orleans loss. The 49ers own the 2 seed ahead of New Orleans due to having a better conference record (SF: 8-2, NO: 7-3). After this week, SF will take on the Rams in a game that may or may not have meaning depending on what happens with New Orleans.
New Orleans: The Saints host the Falcons on Monday night, after that they'll have the Panthers in Week 17. If the Saints win both games and the 49ers go 1-1, then the Saints are your two seed and get the bye. Who would you rather play if you're a 6 seed, New Orleans or San Francisco? I think it's pretty clear that New Orleans is the more dangerous team by a long shot.
NFC East: I wrote NFC East because that's who will get the four seed no matter what. Dallas is currently the 4 seed. They host Philadelphia on Saturday, and then go to New York to take on the Giants in Week 17. The Giants take on the Jets on Saturday, followed by Dallas in Week 17, and those pesky Eagles are still alive. After Dallas, they host the Redskins in Week 17. Here's how it breaks down.
Dallas: If the Cowboys win out, then they are in. They can also get in with a win, and one Giants loss...remember the Cowboys play the Giants in Week 17.
New York: Just like the Cowboys, the Giants win the division by winning their two remaining games.
Philadelphia: The Eagles need a lot to happen, but it's not exactly crazy to think they could get in. First of all they must win their last two games, but they own the tie breaker against the Giants and Cowboys so if the Giants and Cowboys both finish 8-8, then the Eagles are in. That means they need the Cowboys to lose both games, and they must have the Giants lose to the Jets. If the Giants beat the Jets, the Eagles are eliminated. Complex, but extremely possible. The Giants and Jets are a noon kickoff, so the Eagles will know if they are playing for anything
Atlanta: They still have an outside shot of winning the NFC South. They'd need to beat New Orleans on Monday Night, and then beat Tampa in Week 17 while also needing Carolina to beat New Orleans in Week 17. First thing is first, and the Falcons are in with a win. They could also get in with one loss from DAL+ARI+CHI or NYG+ARI+CHI. Looking further ahead, if Atlanta clinches as they should, they own the head to head tie breaker over Detroit which would give them the 5 seed (meaning they'd play the winner of the NFC East).
Detroit: It's win and your in for the Lions too. They host the red hot Chargers on Saturday, and head out to Lambeau Field in Week 17. Honestly, that's a pretty tough couple of weeks. I wouldn't want to play the Chargers right now, and who knows what kind of effort the Packers will roll out with in Week 17. The Lions can also get in the tournament with one of the following scenarios: 1) CHI loss + ARI loss + SEA loss + DAL loss; 2) CHI loss + ARI loss + SEA loss + NYG loss; 3) CHI loss + ARI loss + SEA loss + ATL win. Last week's dramatic win over the Raiders might have literally saved their season.
SO YOU'RE SAYING THERE'S A CHANCE?:
*Seattle (7-7): Hosting SF, then at Arizona. They'll obviously have to win both games and hope that Detroit and Atlanta lose both of their remaining games. They own the tiebreaker over CHI,NYG, and ARI if it came down to that...which it won't.
*Chicago (7-7): Must win both remaining games. At Green Bay on Christmas Night, and at Minessota in Week 17. They also must have Detroit and Atlanta lose both remaining games, as well as Seattle losing at least one of it's remaining games.
*Arizona (7-7): Too little too late it appears, but this is pretty remarkable that they are even being mentioned here. They'll need to win this week at Cincinatti, and in Week 17 against the Seahawks. They'll also need Detroit and Atlanta to lose both of their remaining games, as well as Seattle, Chicago, and New York losing at least one of their remaining games.
OH NO: In the race for worst record Minessota and St. Louis are both 2-12. From a draft standpoint the Vikings are ahead of the Rams due to their conference record (MIN: 2-8, STL: 1-10). Play it smart guys. Mail it in.
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